ADCC 2024: Aftermath and Analysis
As with every ADCC, there was no shortage of upsets, highlight reel submissions, or legendary runs. Of course, I’m always interested in looking at the long trends, and like everyone, making predictions for 2026.
It seems like every ADCC, especially 2019 onward, has been “the best.” I’m biased because that’s also when I started training again and paying attention to the event; though of course I’ve since gone back to watch all the way back to 2015 or so.
Rather than trying to take in the whole event I want to highlight some of the overall performances, submissions, and upsets I found to be the most impressive and entertaining. It’s a little too tough to call and order a “Top 3”, but I can give you a list of 3-5 (in no particular order) to look into for yourself!
As an aside, a couple of the things I’m most happy about are:
The pressure from CJI did results in the ADCC athletes getting paid (some) more; though the prestige still remains the main prize.
FloGrappling, apparently after a class action lawsuit, instituted month-to-month pricing; meaning I can pay $30 to re/watch ADCC for one month without having to pay $12 / month (billed annually for $144 hit up front).
Standout Overall Performances:
Kaynan Duarte:
Kaynan won double gold this year, in -99Kg and absolute (open weight). Either of those are laudable on their own, but what’s more is that Kaynan also submitted 7/8 opponents, making this one of the greatest ADCC runs in history. After this year, Kaynan has brought his lifetime ADCC medal count to 4, and is lined up to face Gordon Ryan in the 2026 superfight (more on this later).
Adele Fornarino:
Adele became the first Australian champion in ADCC history this year, winning the -55Kg women’s division. What’s better than that? She also won the absolute female division. What’s better than that? Only slightly less impressive than Kaynan, Adele won 5/6 matches by submission.
Mica Galvao:
Mica became the second ever, and by far the youngest at 20 years old, to win a “super grand slam.” This comprises of winning all 4 major IBJJF tournaments and an ADCC gold medal within the same year; so it’s only even possible to attempt once every two years.
Gordon Ryan:
I’ll have more to say about Gordon below, but the superfight against Yuri Simmones brings Gordon’s ADCC medal count to the highest in history at 7. Gordon only had two matches this time around, but what was spectacular was the 21-0 score against Yuri Simmones.
Yuri, in due respect, is the defending champion of the ADCC absolute division — no small task — and has won multiple world championships. He couldn’t even score against Gordon. For those unacquainted with grappling point spreads, in Olympic Freestyle Wrestling a “technical fall” — aka a mercy rule — wins the match when you lead by 10 points. Gordon doubled that… against the reigning absolute division champion.
Standout Submissions:
For fun I’ve included FloGrapplings “Top 10 Submissions” from each Day 1 (above) and Day 2 (below). Some of my personal favorites were, of course, the upsets in the Instagram reel at the beginning of this page, but also:
Kaynan Duarte def. Roberto Abreu (guilllotine):
I’ll give credit to Abreu below, but for now, let’s sit on how hard it is to win at this level, let alone to beat the same man twice on the same day (semifinals of -99Kg and finals of absolute), let alone doing it with the exact same submission!
Adele Fornarino def. Bianca Basillio (mir lock, finals -55Kg):
This was part of Adele’s epic run and came against the number one seed in the division, just 2:42 into the scheduled 20 minute match. It was cool to see a classic, but uncommon, submission (named after MMA fighter Frank Mir by the way) at a very high level. The sportsmanship of this match was great as well. Bia was all smiles despite the loss. Sometimes you know you were caught and beat fair and square.
Diogo Reyes def. Deigo Pato (arm triangle, finals -66Kg):
This match was a long time in the making, with two of the standout favorites clashing heads once before. Pato won by injury in a WNO match. The offense was all Pato for the first nearly 15 minutes. But a quick turn around from Reyes showed that even a “basic” submission isn’t to be underestimated, nor his ability to end the match at any time.
Top Takeaways:
The old legends know not to underestimate anyone.
11 former medalists din’t make it to Day 2. Helena Crevar became the youngest medalist at 17. The three oldest competitors each claimed a silver medal. There are always upsets, but Roberto Abreu, Vagnar Rocha, and Rafael Lovato Jr. were not among them. They’re all 40+ and captured the absolute, -77Kg, and -99Kg silver medals respectively.
Gordon didn’t look great against Pena.
The differences we saw between Gordon on Saturday (vs. Pena) compared to Sunday (vs. Yuri) were night and day. If the former is who shows up against the Kaynan Duarte we saw this weekend in 2026 — “The King” may see his first loss since 2018.
On the other hand, Kaynan has a long history of running hot and cold — see his WNO match versus Meregali. If it’s that Kaynan versus the Gordon that dismantled Yuri, the result will be even uglier. If we get the worst version of both, Gordon has shown (vs. Nicky Rod and Pena) that he’s willing to eat more than a few pops to prove a point and win the match. Hopefully, we get the best of both and it’s a barn burner!
Submission / technique tides and trends are always shifting, but the classics never fade.
Your most frequent submissions for ADCC 2024 were: RNC (25%), Armbar (20%), Guillotine (10%), Heel Hook (10%), and Triangle (8%). Many will pick up on the sudden drop in the prominence of the heel hook; or lower body attacks in general.
However, I’d like to point out a more important trend, a literal 80/20 Rule in action. The Top 4 submissions accounted for 85% of all the submissions in the entire tournament. The Top 2 accounted for almost half. That should give you a pretty damn good idea what to focus your training on.
Prediction: We’ll continue to see a rise of “low-risk” takedowns and counter-wrestling (e.g. foot sweeps and Harai Goshi).
There’s always a lot of wrestling in ADCC. It’s part of how the rules are designed and what they’re designed to attract. However, I feel like this year there was a lot less shoot wrestling relatively speaking.
I’d predict we will continue to see more and more foot sweeps and throws come to prominence because of their relative low risk — remember what the top two submission were? How do people get to your neck or back? Usually, the answer is off of your bad shots (guillotine) or their good shots (you exposing your back to not give up a pass or takedown).