ADCC Replay: -77Kg
Strategic conclusions from ADCC world championship brackets in 2022 and 2024.
In preparation for my first ADCC Open I wanted to go back and look at the previous two years’ world championship brackets at my weight class and see what stood out strategically.
TL;DR:
Score first.
Don’t get scored on.
Hunt submissions.
Guard pulling is risky.
Each year’s bracket gives us 16 matches to study, an overall sample size of 32 – which is decent statistically speaking. I’ve said before that we have to be careful of studying outliers in isolation because, well… they’re outliers. In other words, Gordon or Mica may do things one way and “get away with it” but they are extraordinarily gifted in many other areas to begin with.
We could get a more broad dataset by also including the bi-annual qualifiers (known as “trials”) as well, but the quality slips a bit as anyone can enter these tournaments. By contrast virtually anyone who makes it to the world championship could win the tournament on any given weekend.
So, for our purposes, let’s keep it to the biggest of the big leagues without niching-down beyond general application.
2022 @ 77 Kg
Right off the rip, let’s look at methods of winning.
Points: 38%
Submission: 56%
Ref. Decision: 6% (one match)
This isn’t too decisive of a figure, but there were notably more wins by submission. To shed a little more light on that, let’s look a few more details:
Guard Pullers: Lost 66%
Securing the Takedown Before Points: Lost 66%
Those two figures are fascinating to me, especially when you consider that people that scored first won 100% of the time. Additionally, that means that there were no comeback wins, by either submission or points. It’s also noteworthy that people who scored first, won by points 100% of the time, so they seemed focused on that method.
Regarding the timing of submissions themselves, it was pretty even with 44% occurring in the first (submission-only) “period” and 56% occurring in the second (points) period. There were no submissions in overtime.
Key Matches and Misc. Notes:
Canuto vs. Ryan:
For me personally, this is a great note on pacing. Ryan came out hot and faded a little throughout the match. Canuto, on the other hand, weathered an early storm and built up momentum.
Canuto vs. Galvao:
The key takeaway here is that you usually don’t get punished for attacking, even if you lose the position. This is a clever way to end up on bottom and seems to work much better than pulling guard. Two of Mica’s three wins were by points, that he scored first.
Szczecinski vs. Tacket / Dante vs. PJ:
These were the lone guard pull victories. If you’re going to pull guard, you cannot get scored on and absolutely must submit.
Kade didn’t score a single point…
… and won all of his matches by submission to become the youngest champion in ADCC history. I talked about outliers in the introduction.
In Summary:
To me that looks like some safe conclusions overall are:
Pulling guard is high risk.
Don’t sell out on takedowns before you’ll get rewarded for them (via points).
Always be hunting submissions.
Don’t get scored on.
Score first.
2024 @ 77 Kg
Win Methods:
Points: 8 (50%)
Submission: 6 (38%)
Decision: 2 (12%)
These numbers were consistent with 2022.
Guard Pullers:
Won: 1 (25%)
Lost: 3 (75%)
Compared to 2022, pulling guard was an even worse decision statistically speaking.
Takedown Before Points:
Won: 7 (70%)
Lost: 3 (30%)
This was a huge flip in the other direction from 2022! The main difference here was that many of the people who got an early takedown before points, also managed to score first (below).
Score First:
Won: 10 (100%)
Lost: 0
This is consistent and a condition that cannot be understated. In all of the matches in both the 2022 and 2024 brackets, 100% of the people who scored first won their matches!
Submission Timing:
Sub-Only Period: 0
Points Period: 3 (60%)
OT: 2 (40%)
These numbers were pretty consistent with 2022, with slightly more submissions coming within regulation and a couple in overtime.
Notable Matches:
Galvao vs. Paulo
Micah does a great job again of illustrating the fact that you do not get punished for submission attempts, even if you end up on bottom.
Dorsey vs. Torres
If you initiate, but can’t finish a takedown in 3 seconds, it might be best to (A) cut them and reset or (B) pull guard. Referring to the rules, you do not get penalized if you “fight hard for a takedown for 3 seconds and then pull guard.”
Galvao x Barch
This was the biggest robbery of the tournament. If we’re calling the overtime exchanges a toss up, PJ still had the takedown early in the match (before points). However, this match highlights the importance of being active late in the match to win judges’ favor.
Rocha x Dorsey
In my opinion this was another robbery. Dorsey was more active and aggressive with the takedown attempts, but it seems the judges valued Rocha’s submission attempts more; though I still think this was disproportionate in terms of total offense. Once again, we’re reminded to not “leave it up to the judges.”
Overall Conclusions:
In grand conclusion, not much has changed, and the obvious is confirmed.
Score first.
We’ve known this for a long time, that the person that scores first has a huge advantage towards winning. Across two ADCC brackets this was irrefutable at 100%. As a secondhand effect we can also add don’t get scored on.
Hunt submissions.
Micah Galvao does a great job of illustrating, in every match, not just at ADCC, the value of constantly off-balancing and attacking your opponent. It’s hard for them to initiate their own offense when they’re constantly defending.
Guard pulling is risky.
Gravity and time are not your friends when you’re on bottom. Sweeps are very uncommon as most points com from takedowns, back takes, and mount. Not everyone is Gordon Ryan and can call their shot, so assuming you’ll be able to submit someone in under 5 minutes or, failing that, be able to survive or have enough energy on reserve to not get out-pointed for the remaining 5 minutes is a poor wager.
Pacing matters (but can be offset by the above factors).
Evidenced by the guard pulling phenomenon and 2022 pre-point takedowns, “blowing your wad” too early has devastating consequences. However, the “win conditions” we’re outlining here are not all created equal. If you can get the takedown and keep scoring when points are available – particularly if you keep threatening submissions as well – you’ve got a winning strategy.
Statistically speaking of course!
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