Barbells and Bell Curves, Part 1: Statistics Briefing
How complicated should a training plan be? As uncomplicated as possible to still produce results. Let's see if we can big-brain ourselves into training smarter!
As I mentioned in The Cultured Warrior #043 this is a post series that will try to establish guidelines for structuring primary and supplementary training for sport performance. Â I'll assume that everyone is starting from nowhere, so I'll begin with a quick refresher from your high school statistics / psychology class.
Statistics 101:
Sample: a large group of people.
Mean: the arithmetic "average" of a sample.
Standard Deviation: essentially an "average variation."
About 68% of people will be within one standard deviation of the average. Â For example, the "average" IQ is 100, and 68% of people will be somewhere between 80 and 110; between one standard deviation below (-10) the average to one standard deviation above (+10) the average. Â For the sake of simple heuristics, we can round that 68% to 70%. Â This is the foundation for a large principle of this post series; The 70/30 Principle.
On either side of "the 70% average" in a sample of people, athletes in our case, there lies the 15% worst (left on the curve) and 15% best (right on the curve). Â Tentatively I'd suggest that the principles I discuss throughout this series can also be scaled at different ratios:
80% average, 10% worst / 10% best
90% average, 5% worst / 5% best
If we refer back to the image above and use 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations as reference points (again, approximate rounding for simplicity), we'd be looking at:
+/- 1 SD: 70% average, 15% worst / 15% best
+/- 2 SD: 95% average, 2.5% worst / 2.5% best
+/- 3 SD: 99% average, 0.5% worst / 0.5% best
The 70/30 Principle:
As the name implies, this is derived from above 1 SD (standard deviation) ratio above. Â However, the concept isn't novel as many other very, very smart and far more accomplished trainers have describes such a guideline.
70/30 Principle: Â (1) 70% of people should spend 70% of their training time doing the thing they want to excel at.
Simply put, you need to do the thing you want to get good at! Â It doesn't matter what that is, climbing, fighting, singing, driving, whatever. Â Do the thing. Â The ranges I've seen vary from 70% - 80%, though I suspect there's a hint of math and some general rounding for simplicity (ergo adherence). Â The principle remains the same. Â Do the thing!
Check, but how much "of the thing?" Â I can't speak for other authors, but in order to not sound arbitrary, I wrote you 250 words or so to explain why I picked the raito(s) I did. Â Okay, seriously though... This depends on how much total time you have available to train.
Start with The Thing. Â If I can make it to BJJ class twice per week and each class is 2 hours, that's 4 hours total of BJJ per week. Â Grab a calculator, I told you there was math ahead!
4 / 0.7 = 5.7
4 hours of BJJ / 70 percent = 5.7 hours total training, round up to 6
With 6 hours of total training per week, The 70/30 Principle leads you to:
6 hours total training time (100%)
4 hours of BJJ time (70%)
2 hours supplemental time (30%)
What do we do with the supplemental or "not-the-thing" time? Â If you're honest with yourself, you're probably lagging behind in some attribute (strength, conditioning, body fat, mobility, etc.). Â With 30% supplemental time, we don't get to split it evenly (e.g. 10% strength, 10% conditioning). Â You have to pick something to dedicate more time to, choose the one you're worse at.
FYI: You're misleading yourself if you think you can significantly improve strength AND conditioning at the same time. Â If you are, either the problem isn't what you think it is, or you're not in the "70% average"; your among the 15% worst. Â See how this works! Â Neat, huh!
Using the 6-Hour Training Week example from above, we'd be wise to use an assessment tool or metric to see what movements / attributes you're struggling with. Â From there we might get a training schedule like:
6 hours total training time (100%)
4 hours primary training (70%, The Thing)
1.5 hours (or 10 min / day) supplemental focus (20%, Conditioning)
30 min / week (or 5 min / day) supplemental maintenance (10%, Strength Training)
In Part 2 we'll take a closer look at those 15% worst and 15% best outliers as well as talk about tertiary / auxiliary training (think "pre-hab" and longevity); these are often things done "off the mat / field."